Colleagues,
Automation of jobs has been a trend since the 19th century industrial revolution. As one result, we now have very few farms in the U.S., under 2% of the U.S. workforce is farmers, and most food is grown on "factory" farms. In my hometown of Detroit, the "Motor City", where auto manufacturing was the major industry, there is only one auto plant now and, except for a handful of highly trained mechanics and engineers, cars there are built by robots.
In a new book, Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that good jobs soon will also be obsolete, "that many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software." http://tinyurl.com/o6da78q In an NPR interview, Attention White-Collar Workers: The Robots Are Coming For Your Jobs, http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/05/18/407648886/attention-white-collar-workers-the-robots-are-coming-for-your-jobs Ford describes how automation is already replacing those who have fled to the last remaining growth sectors, the service industries, and that automation has had a huge impact on journalism jobs, and even creative areas such as music composition. (Apparently at least one computer-generated musical composition has received high acclaim.) Ford says, professionals are by no means exempt from job automation.
Is your job safe? Probably yes if you work as a teacher. Check out this NPR interactive database article where you can enter a field (e.g. education) and job (e.g. high school teacher) that is closest to what you do, and find out the probability of your job being automated. http://tinyurl.com/p7ea7p6 If you're an education librarian, sadly, the database says the chances of your being replaced by a robot (or software) are 64.9%
I don't know that I believe these predictions, but I do definitely see robots, software and other kinds of technology replacing people at an accelerating rate. Where do I see this? The same places you do: banks, supermarkets, pharmacies, and government service agencies, where now people use online software to get services like a driver license and car registration renewals. Where else are you seeing robotization that wasn't there five years ago?
What does the "rise of the robots" mean for those who teach adult basic skills, and whose job is now also to prepare students for career pathways? If we prepare them for jobs and careers, clearly a necessity if you ask most students, will those jobs and careers be there for them? Possibly not. What kinds of jobs will still exist, and how can we know? Some writers have argued that jobs that require certain kinds of thinking that computers are not good at will still be around. Some have suggested that those in work in maintenance, for example, auto and motorcycle repair, or medical care (people who don't create the product but whose job is maintaining and repairing it) will still have their jobs. What do you think?
Articles like these may be upsetting, to us and to adult learners, but they are important. If we are interested in real career pathways, we need to look not only at what jobs exist now and how to prepare for them, but whether or not those jobs will exist ten years from now; understanding what computers and robots can do, or soon will be able to do, and the trends that they will eliminate certain jobs, is an important piece of the occupational information knowledge that we -- and our students -- need. Another piece may be how to teach the underlying skills that enable students to quickly learn new skills needed for new jobs.
What do you think about this job automation/people replacement trend? What do think adult learners need to know about it? If, as Ford argues, in the new robotization of service jobs that this time there is no new sector to go to for new jobs, that massive unemployment will be our future unless we re-structure work in our society, what do you see as the implications for needed social change? A work week of fewer hours, higher wages for work, more jobs that focus on improving the quality of life (such as?) or something else?
David J. Rosen
Technology and Learning CoP Moderator
djrosen123@gmail.com
Comments
This is an interesting topic to consider, David. When I think about career pathways and how it is being impacted by automation, I don't see it as a zero-sum game. Meaning, I don't think that robots or new technology will ever completely take over middle skill jobs, which is the goal for those entering into career pathways from low-skilled jobs . I do think that automation has the potential to take over most low-skilled jobs, and is already well on its way, as you mention.
I believe that WIOA's re-authorization will help those of us in adult education and career pathways to work more collaboratively in finding ways to raise the bar in terms of employment outcomes for graduates. I believe that we need to think of ways to embed more learning in work-based contexts, and that requires not just education and workforce development, but also industry to come together and see what jobs will be in demand in five, ten and 20 years.
It's my hope that together, we can support learners in developing not only skill sets for the technology we have today, but also the transferrable skills and commitment to lifelong learning that will help them to manage the changes we have yet to even consider.
Mike